Unusually warm water in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico could spell bad news for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, according to forecasters from AccuWeather.
They have released their forecast for the upcoming hurricane season calling for an “explosive” year with a near-record number of named storms forming in the Atlantic basin. AccuWeather is predicting 20 to 25 named storms, with eight to 12 becoming hurricanes and four to seven turning into major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or stronger.
Hurricane season officially gets underway June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.
Category 3 hurricanes pack top sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, capable of causing devastating damage. Even stronger are Category 4 hurricanes, with sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 storms, with top winds blowing at 157 mph or stronger.
Based on averages during the 30-year stretch from 1990 to 2020, the “normal” Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of which turn into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that cause the most destruction.
Three to four named storms typically affect the United States or U.S. territories during an average hurricane season.
During the 2024 hurricane season, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting four to six direct impacts on the U.S., including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
“The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” said Alex DaSilva, chief hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather.
Forecasters say more tropical storms and hurricanes tend to form during La Nina weather patterns, and that's the pattern that is predicted for the late summer or early fall of 2024.AccuWeather
Warm ocean temperatures and La Niña
Long-range forecasters from AccuWeather say two key ingredients for a blockbuster hurricane season appear to be coming together — super-warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, and the expected transition from the current El Niño weather pattern to a La Niña pattern later this year.
An El Niño pattern, triggered by warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, tends to limit the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, experts say. A La Niña pattern, with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Pacific, typically leads to more active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic.
AccuWeather and other weather forecasters say La Niña patterns are more likely to support the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic because of reduced wind shear — which occurs when winds suddenly change their speed or direction at different heights in the atmosphere.
When there’s a lot of wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane basin, which consists of the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, it usually limits the formation and strength of tropical storm systems.
These are the 21 names that will be used when tropical storms or hurricanes develop during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. If more than 21 storms form, a supplemental list of names will be used.AccuWeather
“It can be helpful to visualize a stack of pancakes,” AccuWeather’s forecasters said. “When there is a high amount of wind shear, the top of a tropical system can be pushed and tilted away from its base, causing it to become lopsided. If a mature hurricane is in place, it may weaken but will not necessarily dissipate.”
“A tall, neat stack is what a tropical system wants to be,” DaSilva noted, “but wind shear can cause some pancakes to be displaced and the stack could fall over.”
The La Niña pattern isn’t expected to become dominant until late this summer, sometime between July and September, and the timing could play a role in how many tropical storms and hurricanes develop.
“The faster the transition to La Niña occurs, the more active the hurricane season is likely to be,” AccuWeather said.
Atlantic storm names in 2024
If you’re wondering what names will be used for tropical storms or hurricanes that form this year, here’s the list:
- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Francine
- Gordon
- Helene
- Isaac
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Leslie
- Milton
- Nadine
- Oscar
- Patty
- Rafael
- Sara
- Tony
- Valerie
- William
Current weather radar
Stories by Len Melisurgo
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com or on X at @LensReality.