A new poll shows indicted U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez would draw just less than 10% of the vote if he launched an independent bid for re-election in New Jersey this year.
The survey, conducted by Emerson College, PIX11 and The Hill and released Tuesday, showed Menendez, a Democrat, would get 9% of the vote running as an independent, compared to 49% for an unnamed Democrat and 42% for an unnamed Republican nominee.
That indicates his candidacy could cut into Democratic votes as it shows only 7% would separate the Democratic nominee from the Republican nominee in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 52 years.
Menendez said last month he would not seek the Democratic nomination for fourth term, though he might run as an independent if he is exonerated in a federal corruption case that accused him of bribery and other crimes. The deadline for filing as an independent candidate is June 4, the same date as New Jersey’s primaries.
Menendez has served in the Senate since 2006 and won successive elections, including one that followed a trial in which he faced corruptions charges nearly a decade ago.
The poll also found Menendez has a 14% job approval rating among New Jersey voters and a 62% disapproval rating. Menendez had a higher job approval rating with Democrats at 22%, while Republicans and Independents were at 9%
Meanwhile, the survey looked at the Democratic primary for Menendez’s seat, in which U.S. Rep. Andy Kim, D-3rd Dist., is considered the leading candidate after First Lady Tammy Murphy dropped out of the race on March 24.
The poll showed Kim has 51% support in the June 4 Democratic primary, while 40% are undecided. The remaining 11% was split by Patricia Campos-Medina, a labor leader, and Lawrence Hamm, a civil rights activist. It was the first survey poll taken after Murphy exited the race.
The Senate race comes at a sensitive and historic moment in New Jersey politics, with the state’s primary ballot design having been blocked for the Democratic primary in response to a lawsuit by Kim.
Known as the “county line”, New Jersey’s design puts candidates selected by county parties in the same voting column. Kim and other plaintiffs contended the primary process and ballot was being run by powerful county chairs and that backroom deals were overriding the more democratic voting process.
Republicans will still be allowed to use the ballot design, but there are also those in the party that wish to get rid of the design as well. Currently, the case being heard in the Third Circuit Court of Appeals.
The poll was conducted via phone March 26-29 with 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus percentage points. This sample included 408 Democratic primary voters and 310 Republican voters. The Democratic primary part of the poll had a margin of errors of plus-or-minus 4.8 percentage points.
Jelani Gibson is a cannabis and politics reporter for NJ.com. He can be reached at jgibson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @jelanigibson1 and on LinkedIn.